Agriculture faces major environmental challenges on global, national and local levels. The environmental benefits of organic agriculture and its potential to deal with these challenges are scientifically recognized. With the goal of 100% organic farming by 2050, Luxembourg has built the basis for a strategy towards a sustainable food system with the potential for good performance in climate change adaptation. However, a vision of how the transition towards this may be done and a thorough analysis of the related challenges is lacking.
This project VISION 2050 will model a number of scenarios of a conversion of agriculture in Luxembourg to 100% organic production, with the aim to design a sustainable Luxembourgish organic agricultural and food system in the year 2050, considering climatic change and environmental conditions. The starting point is the analysis of the base scenario of the current agricultural system in 2020. This is then extrapolated to the year 2050 considering climate change, thus providing a reference scenario for 2050. Subsequently, a number of scenarios with 100% conversion to organic agriculture, partly complemented with other strategies, such as circular food systems, reduced food wastage or reduced concentrate feed will be analysed. The scenario specifications will be done in close collaboration with key stakeholders and with the international scientific board of the project. For all scenarios, various sustainability indicators will be analysed, with a focus on trade-offs and synergies among them. In close collaboration with the stakeholders, most promising scenarios for such a future with 100% organic agriculture in Luxembourg will be identified. To link this scenario analysis to the farm level, typical farms for the current baseline situation and the envisaged future with 100% organic agriculture will be identified, to illustrate what these changes may mean for the farms and the agricultural sector structure. The output of the project will be a vision for a sustainable 100% organic farming system in Luxembourg for the year 2050. In this vision, climate change adaptation performance and climate change mitigation impacts will be addressed besides other sustainability aspects. These results will provide guidance to Luxembourg on how to design a future sustainable food system.
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